Roshanfar, M. A. (2011) Designing revenue crop insurance plan using multivariate simulation technique in Sistan region. Masters thesis, University of Zabol.
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Abstract
Agricultural activities are exposed to various uncertainties. The types of risks menace security and welfare of farmers and rural households are vary. Therefore, support from farmers and manufacturers against their revenue volatility leads to increased motivation and produce. Hence, implementation of agricultural insurance policies is one of the most important government programs for risk management in agriculture. But common insurance problems in country based on the crops resulted in reduction. One of the recent and famous successful policies of agricultural insurance is revenue crop insurance. Revenue insurance manages produce and market risks simultaneously and it can designs for spatial crop or multi crops. This study tried to design the pattern of crop revenue insurance and multi-crop revenue insurance for select crops in Sistan province. The prices of farm and average region yields from 1362 to 1388 was studied. Then a parametric approach was applied for recognition and simulation of the distribution probability of risks. In this study Gaussian copula function was employed for determining joint probability density distribution and then it was simulated by Monte Carlo technique. The results showed that expected indemnity for wheat, barley and alfalfa revenue insurance in 1389 at 90% coverage level were 1278.2, 1154.7 and 4377.5 through revenue guarantee and simulated revenue. The resluts of multivariate simulation techniques and copula function showed that the expected indemnity for multi crop revenue insurance for wheat, barley and alfalfa were 6435.3 thousand rials in hectar at 90% coverage level. The expected indemnity and premium rate of multi-crop revenue insurance was lower than sum of indemnity or premium rate for all crop revenue insurance. Therefore crop revenue insurance is an appropriate alternative for yield crop insurance and so multi crop insurance is sufficient option for revenue risk management.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
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| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Revenue Crop Insurance, Multivariate Simulation Technique, Sistan |
| Subjects: | S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General) |
| Depositing User: | admin admin1 admin2 |
| Date Deposited: | 24 Apr 2016 04:24 |
| Last Modified: | 24 Apr 2016 04:24 |
| URI: | http://eprints.uoz.ac.ir/id/eprint/476 |
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