Modelling of Agriculture Sector (Agriculture, Horticulture, Fishing and Foresty) of Iran in Order To Study Effect of Price Increases Energy Carriers

Eskandary, Mostafa (2014) Modelling of Agriculture Sector (Agriculture, Horticulture, Fishing and Foresty) of Iran in Order To Study Effect of Price Increases Energy Carriers. Masters thesis, University of Zabol.

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Subsidy with price distortion Prevents resources from having been allocated optimally and reduces economic growth. On the other hand, it makes irreparable Effects causing budget deficiency and increases in social costs on the economics of the country. Implementation of targeting policy affects economical macro variables. Economy policy makers selecting suitable support packages and monetary and financial policies are closer to their goals, if the trend of changes of those variables is explored. In the present study done according to the analysis of input–output model and production forecast models, using 65 parts input–output table (2013 table) which modified and updated according to the (RAS) 65 parts input–output 2006 table. The impact of increasing in energy carriers price (gasoline, kerosene, gas oil, fuel oil, liquid gas, electricity and natural gas) in first (2010) and second (2014) phases of Iranian economic variables have been studied. In this study, the effect of rising prices of energy carriers on inflation, growth rate and relative prices of different products have been investigated. Results were indicative of direct and indirect effects of price rises of energy carriers on growth rate of different parts of economy. As in agriculture, averagely, production rate growth of subdivisions such as agricultural sector was increased by 24/92 percent and transportation and industries was respectively declined by -16/13 and -17/37. Furthermore, after performing two shocking phases, means of relative prices in, agricultural sector, transportation and industries are 0/9028, 10/05 and 1/83 respectively. And after that the economic factors (changes in production, price changes, changes in costs, changes in imports, changes in investment and changes in demand) in agricultural sector were examined. Optimization solutions were presented in order to optimize of the modelings which were performed using linear programming and goal programming. And the results obtained were compared by linear programming and goal programming model. Economy decision-makers and farmers can choose a solution based on two objectives and constraints that exist, as well as other factors such as political issues, and so.

Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Energy Carries, Input – Output, Modeling, Liner Programing, Gol Programing
Subjects: S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General)
Depositing User: admin admin1 admin2
Date Deposited: 25 Oct 2016 05:23
Last Modified: 25 Oct 2016 05:23

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