Effect of land use change on flood behavior using WetSpa model in Ahar Chai watershed

Nazargikloo, S. (2014) Effect of land use change on flood behavior using WetSpa model in Ahar Chai watershed. Masters thesis, University of Zabol.

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Watershed study performed in Ahar chai in 786/57 km2 area in the Azarbayjan Sharghi province. In this study the simulation (Statistical period 1386-1381) distributed hydrological model- Westpac, model rainfall by precipitation, evapotranspiration, temperature and daily discharge data and also the combination of three main map of the models include of DEM, soil and land, were used. Then the model was calibrated. Results of the calibration model based on the standard Nash-Sutcliffe obtained about %64.8 for maximum flow rates %76.65 and for the minimum flow rates %61.28. Also Bays model, %3.65, was used to balance the flow volume (water balance) of the model and RMSE of the model %78.18. After obtaining the appropriate values to set the desired parameters for calibration, the optimization of parameters in the calibration phase, with constant parameter values, for validating, statistically, the model for the second period (1391-1386) took place. The validation of the model based on the standard Nash-Sutcliffe was about %57/17, for flow rates of up to %74.44 and the rate of at least %48.49 of the Bays model to balance the flow volume (water balance) was %1.88 and RMSE model %91/62 respectively. The results of the sensitivity analysis of the models' parameters in such domains Kg (groundwater loss parameter) was identified as the most sensitive parameter in the model. This value indicates the acceptability of the results of the model to simulate daily flows. The other side of the results obtained from the Westpac to model water balance demonstrates. Distributed hydrological model parameters, the water balance components such as evaporation, runoff (surface, subsurface, groundwater) and the initial loss is well estimate. The model for future land use conditions were also simulated. The results showed that by applying the optimistic scenario that leads to increasing the levels of forest and agricultural land than the pessimistic scenario, the land barren land and pasture is switching. The results of optimistic and pessimistic scenarios showed that the pessimistic scenario, the total runoff and peak flood discharge areas were increased 21.3 and 21.7 percent, respectively.

Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Flood simulation, Landuse change, Ahar Chai watershed, WetSpa model
Subjects: S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General)
Depositing User: admin admin1 admin2
Date Deposited: 23 May 2016 07:02
Last Modified: 23 May 2016 07:02
URI: http://eprints.uoz.ac.ir/id/eprint/630

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