Evaluation of effective factors on Supply and Demand Export of some Medicinal Plants in Iran

Moodi, H. (2016) Evaluation of effective factors on Supply and Demand Export of some Medicinal Plants in Iran. Masters thesis, University of Zabol.

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Iran's dependence on oil revenues and its products has resulted in economic and planning problems for our country's development. Non-oil exports, especially agricultural products are one of the ways to escape from single-product economy. In this study, using data between 1380 until 1392 and explained Vector Autoregressive (VAR) of impulse response analysis and forecast error variance analysis, factors affecting the supply and demand of export of some medicinal plants were evaluated. Variance analysis of licorice export supply showed that, after export supply variable, exchange rates has the greatest impact on licorice export supply; Also, export demand variable is the main cause of fluctuations in licorice export demand. After export supply, export demand and weighted average of importing countries income variables have the most impact on fennel export supply; while the export supply and domestic production have the greatest impact on fennel export demand in export demand variables in order. The results of studies on cumin showed that the weighted average of importing countries income, production in other countries and international import price have a positive relationship with cumin export demand, whereas their relationship with cumin domestic production and price is negative. The results of coriander variance analysis showed that in short-term, medium-term and long-term, the most fluctuations in export supply and demand is arising from their own variables. In long term, export demand has the most impact on coriander export supply, and coriander domestic price has the most impact on export demand fluctuations. It is recommended to apply policies in order to decrease the fluctuations of export supply and demand variables to minimum, so that they have the power of competition in global markets.

Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords: export, supply, demand, Vector Autoregressive (VAR)
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General)
Depositing User: admin admin1 admin2
Date Deposited: 17 May 2016 09:02
Last Modified: 17 May 2016 09:02
URI: http://eprints.uoz.ac.ir/id/eprint/602

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