Moinoddini, Zeinab (2017) Effect of rainfall changes on food security using stochastic computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model. Doctoral thesis, university of zabol.
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Abstract
Climate change will have an enormous impact on the economic activities and the most important economic activities is agricultural activities that have the greatest impact from these changes. Considering that agricultural activities are always some limitations and risks faced by climate change. Besides agricultural activities is suppliers Most of the food requirements of each country and food security, therefore, despite the increase in population has been accompanied by drastic changes in environmental and climate, Security and welfare of human societies has always been faced with kind of threat from this side; So it is always very important achieve to self-sufficiency in order to benefit all segments of society to safe and adequate food. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of rainfall on Food Security in Iran using a stochastic general equilibrium model. The aim of this study was to evaluate rainfall shocks on the food security. Three shocks for rainfall are intended that includes three scenarios. These three shocks, three scenarios has simulate to three rainfall modes tha including best scenario in terms of highest rainfall, the worst scenario in terms of lowest rainfall and normal scenario in terms of average rainfall. To assess food security two important aspects of the availability and accessibility of food were analyzed. To investigate these two aspects evaluated the production and imports and prices of commodity. The results showed that rainfall changes have the greatest impact on wheat production That In the best rainfall scenario has seen that greatest increase is in the amount of wheat. About import of goods, after simulated three scenarios changes are created in quality of imported goods which is the largest importer on agricultural goods among them were allocated commodity of wheat and other grains rain fed were the most change in the worst rainfall scenario. From results obtained for the import an production of goods concluded that the country has food security and to preserve the food security in low rain conditions should increase yields or, using imports to compensate for food shortages. Furthermore amount changes several other economic indicators were also assessed by rainfall changes. Public and private consumption reduced in the worst and average rainfall scenario, Investment also decreased in all scenarios. Value added and gross domestic product changed in different scenarios. The balance of payments was negative in conditions worst rainfall. The share of household income from any of the commodities also changed in the best and worst scenarios.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
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| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Food security, Rainfall change, Stochastic CGE model |
| Subjects: | S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General) |
| Depositing User: | Mrs najmeh khajeh |
| Date Deposited: | 16 May 2018 07:19 |
| Last Modified: | 06 Mar 2019 05:49 |
| URI: | http://eprints.uoz.ac.ir/id/eprint/1754 |
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